Voters: double down on Trump or fold? National referendum on now

Voters: double down on Trump or fold?

National referendum on now

 

Gordon L. Weil

The pollsters are running wild.

As the U.S. approaches Election Day, forecasting about the possible outcomes dominates the political news.  The basis for the forecasts is often poll results. And many of those results fall within the so-called “margin of error.”

In reality, most polling should be read to say that the outcome is uncertain, so voters better cast their ballots on the possibility that they might determine the winner.  Polls can become an election factor by encouraging voter behavior, but they are given far more weight than they are worth.

This column has often criticized polling.   Its reliability is weakened by one or more factors:  the ways in which the survey sample is collected, how the answers are massaged, the survey questionnaire and its potential bias, its lack of timeliness and the tendency of pollsters to rely on one another to verify their findings.

Often, pollsters focus on “likely voters.”   What tells them if a voter is likely to cast a ballot?  The voter.  And that includes one other factor raising doubt: is the interviewee being honest?  And how representative of a larger constituency are the many people who simply decline to be surveyed?

The bottom line must be that the people who vote will differ from the hypothetically representative people in a survey.  How much?  That gets back to the question of turnout, varying from place to place, issue to issue or candidate to candidate.

The congressional elections this year look to constitute a referendum on President Trump, which he would like it to be.  What is his outlook?

To begin, he can rely on his core, the faithful MAGA adherents.  Supporting him is the essence of their political participation.  Just as he claims, he is never wrong about anything.  For them, when Trump takes a position, that position is, by definition, correct.  If he abruptly changes his position, that’s because he knows more than anybody else about underlying reality.

The Trump core is likely to vote.

Closely related to the core are voters he has convinced that the Democratic Party is out to destroy America, because it is socialist or even communist.  To convince people of this view, he must rewrite history, which works for those whose knowledge of history is shaped by social media and is mostly wrong.  They vote for Trumpers, who will block the supposedly devious Democrats.

The Democratic doubters are likely to vote for GOP candidates, though some may choose to abstain.

Finally, he would rely on voters whose allegiance to the Republican Party is ingrained, possibly by family or neighborhood custom.   His takeover of the GOP pays off when traditional adherents remain committed, blind to his departure from Republican orthodoxy like the need to cut deficits.  This may be especially true in dwindling rural areas.

Traditional Republicans could choose to stay home.  While some will remain loyal, others are angry about their cost of living and government spending.  A minority might believe the Democrats could do better.  Some, now fully aware of the extent to which Trump has turned the presidency to personal profit, will want to openly reject him.

National policy is often something of an abstraction for voters, which explains why foreign policy issues are secondary.   The practical implications of key policies – income, prices, opportunity, nondiscrimination – matter more than policies removed from daily life.  Sometimes, of course, people vote on social issues to the point of ignoring their own wellbeing.

A theme of recent elections has been the message that people want change.  Government is not yielding results that improve their lives.  The elections of Barack Obama and Donald Trump were essential expressions of that message.  But reality has to reflect the results that would have to fulfill promises for change.

Trump’s charisma and exploitation of presidential power suggested that he could bring real change.  His policies on immigration, environment, energy, and civil liberties carried his unique stamp.

His greatest problem may have been failure to keep America out of war, as he had promised, and the abandonment of his winning promise to bring prices under control and open economic opportunity.  A failed understanding of economics and an overly exalted belief in American power led to the clear failure of his trade policy and his Iran war.

Promises were not kept at a cost to the people, and they noticed.

Trump’s belief in himself extends to a belief that, if the election comes down to him, the voters will keep faith in him no matter their own worries.  MAGA has momentum, he believes.  To help it, he proposes massive taxpayer supported handouts.

Will voters double down on their commitment to Trump or turn away from him in their own self-interest?  A divided people, not the polls and pundits, will ultimately provide the answer.

 

  

The case for immigration; one country decides

 

The case for immigration; one country decides

Swiss voters speak

 

Gordon L. Weil

Mostly overlooked, a Swiss referendum this week made a major statement on immigration that will echo in the U.S. and Europe.  

The vote in Switzerland, a direct democracy where citizens regularly hold popular votes to decide public policy, is proof that immigration won’t go away as an issue, at least in North America and Europe. 

While President Trump has largely made good on his promise to close the door to new arrivals, his policy won’t be the last word.  The Swiss put the question starkly.

Voters were asked to decide if the small country should place a cap on its population.  As the ceiling neared, the government would have to limit immigration, even preventing divided families from re-uniting.  It might have to forego the benefits of access to the EU market if it blocked employment for workers from elsewhere in Europe.

The Swiss vote was a reminder of a key element of the British decision to quit the EU.  One of the prime causes of Brexit was the increase in foreign workers. The European arrivals would take jobs from Brits, it was claimed, and, after they settled, they would reshape the country’s culture, shedding Merrie Olde England and the moribund British Empire.

The pro-Brexit voters believed that their country’s greatness would enable it to profit from going it alone.  The loss of Europeans both in the labor force and in the consumer marketplace did not weigh heavily enough to influence the outcome.  While the British economy did not collapse as a result, its growth slowed.

In Switzerland, the issue was placed before the voters by the largest political party, a right-leaning organization that opposes immigration.  It made several economic arguments that were meant to show that new arrivals would place excessive strain on the country.

It argued that there would not be enough housing to handle additions to the population.  Rural areas would be increasingly “paved over” to accommodate urbanization.  The schools would be stretched and the quality of education would decline.  And there would not be enough support personnel, like doctors, to handle the increase.

These comments assumed that Switzerland could not grow to accept a continual increase in its population.  The proponents did not consider that contributions, professional and financial, that immigrants could make would allow the national economy to grow.  Their position amounted to saying that the country could not prosper if it had a larger population.

The government expressed its opinion, opposing the initiative because it would harm the national economy. It argued that national prosperity would suffer if the country lacked enough labor to maintain and increase production.  Health care and construction, both dependent on foreign workers, would suffer.

The Swiss economy depends on links with other economies, notably the EU.  Ending immigration could isolate the country, potentially ending several international agreements.  The analysis also showed that immigrants contribute more to the economy than the demands placed by them on social welfare programs.

This debate has direct parallels with politics in Britain and the United States.  In Switzerland, under direct democracy, the people themselves got to decide, not politicians seeking to create and exploit fears.

The cap was opposed 55% to 45%.  The electoral defeat came because the large urban areas strongly opposed the proposal to limit population. The Swiss Confederation is divided into state-like “cantons,” and cantons like Zurich and Geneva favored immigration.  Small, rural cantons opposed.  It was the kind of rural-urban, conservative-moderate split seen in American politics.

The result may be explained by more than economic issues.  Proponents also cited the increase in the number of Muslims, making discrimination a factor.

The Swiss referendum reflected a debate about the nature of the world’s economies.  Nations may be so interconnected that the movement of workers is not a diabolical threat, as some claim, but an inevitable effect of the new economic links that extend well beyond national borders.

Nor is immigration the result of a globalization plot, designed to destroy national economies and turn power over to hidden economic rulers.   Supply lines that cross borders and workers whose skills offer value beyond their home countries are organic developments, not the result of sinister schemes.

The Swiss government opinion pointed out that approving the proposal would damage the country’s reputation, which is partly based on its creation and operation of the International Red Cross.  By capping its population, “Switzerland would isolate itself and lose its credibility,” it said.

This is the message of the Swiss referendum for the U.S., as it pursues an America First policy. The Swiss think as highly of themselves as do Americans.  Just as the U.S. serves as a constitutional and economic model, Switzerland serves as a humanitarian and democratic model.

Preserving national “credibility” and its thriving economy should be as important to the U.S. as it is to Switzerland.