Trump counterattacks Supreme Court

 

Trump counterattacks Supreme Court

PLUS Pundits’ mistakes

Gordon L. Weil

Trump fights the Supreme Court

Trump wants to limit birthright citizenship, mainly because he does not want the children of illegal foreigners to become citizens.  The Supreme Court has overruled Trump, finding that the 14th Amendment grants citizenship to any person born in the country and “subject to the jurisdiction” of the U.S., (excluding children of foreign diplomats).

Justice Kavanaugh, voting with the majority, pointed out that Congress could define what is meant by being subject to American jurisdiction.  Because it had failed to do so, he agreed with the majority.  (The minority thought the Amendment applied only to Blacks and that the parents must be permanently domiciled in the U.S.)

The Kavanaugh opinion broadly hinted that the administration could have a chance to limit the scope of birthright citizenship, if it induced Congress to define “subject to the jurisdiction.”  It could draft a bill and send it to Congress, either creating a good campaign issue or getting it passed.

But that is the kind of legislative work Trump avoids.  He dislikes the time it takes and the need for dealmaking with members of Congress.

Instead, he issued new executive orders with his own definitions of who could be excluded under the jurisdiction provision.  Besides the undocumented, he wanted to exclude person who came to the U.S. for vacation childbirths (who are already denied visas).  His orders will go through a new and lengthy judicial process and will likely be suspended until a final decision is made.

Trump is launching his boldest remaining ideas and moves before he runs the risk of facing a hostile Congress.  He avoids exposing himself to the possibility of congressional rejection now, but might again use immigration to influence voters.  His support on reversing illegal immigration and expelling people has been falling, so he needs a boost.

Pushing back on the Supreme Court ruling also enables him to express his growing and openly hostile attitude toward the Court.  He believes its conservative majority betrays him, when justices he appointed fail to faithfully support his policies.  He wants to put the Court in its place, joining Congress in accepting or approving his policies. 

He expects other branches of government to support his presidency.  For him, the unitary executive should extend to other branches by dominating or ignoring them.

Pundits mislead, use anecdotes to support their prefab analyses

The November elections are either a national test of movements the MAGA and Democratic Socialist movements or a collection of the usual midterm challenges to the president.

The results could be a validation of Trump, a Blue Wave or the continuation of extremely narrow majorities in Congress.

The conventional wisdom is that the Democrats are engaged in a national struggle between DS and moderates.  They could blow their chances if it prevails.  The pundits view the facts influenced by this thinking.

The main directions of analysis are that (1) the election will depend on a few swing races and will be close, (2) the Democrats are throwing away their chances and (3) prices at the pump may turn Trump supporters away from voting for Republicans.

The underlying belief is that Trump’s Iran war is making GOP candidates vulnerable, but that Democrats are failing to take advantage of the opportunity it provides.  And what’s true in Michigan is also true in Maine, because politics have been nationalized.

To support that belief, news people spread out across the country to produce anecdotal reports based on a few interviews.  Their reports are tailored to conform to the national narrative.

I won’t hazard my analysis, because, like the pundits, I don’t know enough.

But here are some questions that I think should be explored before leaping to conclusions based on a short visit.

1. What is the local media saying about state or district politics differing from national analyses?

2. What is the price at the pump in the state compared with pre-Iran?

3. What are in-state industry and commercial groups telling their members?

4. How does the state behave politically compared with national elections and why?

5. Are candidate age and demographic change relevant?

6. What are the recent indicators of conservative or liberal leanings among voters?

I don’t see questions like these addressed in the New York Times or Washington Post.

In Maine, the national media sees Troy Jackson, the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, as evidence of the risky, progressive takeover of the Democratic Party.  What’s the risk in a state where Democrats favored Bernie Sanders in 2016 and which was one of only three states to approve same-sex marriage though a referendum?

The bottom line is that you are your own best pundit.  What do you think?  What about people you know?  Whatever you conclude, don’t rely on the national media to tell you about yourself.

Democrats need common platform to oppose GOP

Democrats need common platform to oppose GOP

Core message should unify party

 

Gordon L. Weil

The Democrats like to fight.

But they are getting it wrong.  Instead of fighting against Trump and his MAGA Republicans, they fight with one another. 

Progressives and moderates each argue that their party must adopt their message as its platform.  Each group claims to know what will give Democrats control of Congress, while charging the other side is doomed to lose.

Will Rogers, the prairie humorist, famously proclaimed, “I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.”  For many, the thought still rings true.  The party struggles to organize a winning campaign.

The master of forming winning coalitions was President Franklin D. Roosevelt.  He had to unify northern Blacks and blatantly racist southerners behind a common program.   He stressed issues that they shared, while making some concessions to each side.   The result was his 1936 reelection, when he carried all but two states.

Progressives want a more activist federal government, social reform, and political change.  Moderates want to focus on bread-and-butter issues, to avoid social issues, and political restoration. Each side’s commitment to its own beliefs gets in the way of their finding a platform built from issues that both believe are important.

Obviously, the Democrats’ best hope of winning is as the alternative to an unpopular President Trump.  While merely opposing Trump may not be enough to yield a congressional majority, it is their campaign’s basis.  Beyond defeating Trump, his practices and policies, the Democrats lack a unified program based on shared views and concerns.

The party might rally around a platform recognizing the needs and hopes of most Americans and refraining from ideas, however worthy to either wing of the party, that fail to recognize the practical and current concerns of voters.  The Democrats should build on the opportunity Trump has given them and should avoid either looking too far back or too far ahead.

Here’s what a core Democratic platform could include.

Tariffs are a traditional source of revenue and protector of emerging economic sectors, but they have become the president’s political plaything, raising raises costs for consumers.  His policy cuts trade deficits by limiting imports rather than boosting exports.  Democratic policy should stress American strengths and no longer enhance its vulnerability.

The Abraham Accords were meant to foster peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors through cooperation rather than confrontation.  Why not extend that thinking to Iran?  A closer economic relationship could do more to defuse Iran’s threat than futile acts of war.  

Ukraine, Taiwan and Palestine policy should emphasize the traditional American opposition to territorial takeovers, reversing the Canada and Greenland blather.  The U.S. freed the Philippines and other countries and has fought against the territorial expansion of aggressors.  It should oppose attempts to subjugate others. 

Science does not have all the answers, but it has brought much longer lives and much less disease.  Abandoning research harms the American people and makes the U.S. dependent on others.  With a leading role in the sciences, the U.S. is assured of worldwide influence.  Without it, America risks becoming a dependent country.   Saving science is a must for the Democrats.

The judicial system should be based on the concept of justice for all.  Trump packed the Supreme Court to produce a loyal ideological majority, fixed on boosting his presidential power.  The Court’s bias needs to be brought into balance.   A Democratic government should restore a nonpartisan rule of law. 

Americans are losing health care insurance. While “Medicare for all” is too glib to persuade voters, the Democrats can promise coverage for all, which can be done through private insurers as in Germany and Switzerland.

The failure of immigration policy reveals the unwillingness of the parties to compromise.  The country needs both real border security and more immigrants.  The Democrats should declare their willingness to compromise to reach a viable, long-term policy.  They should take the lead in promoting bipartisan negotiations.

It is unrealistic to expect an early return to cooperation and negotiations between the two parties. Their differences are too deep, and the undisciplined use of social media has transformed disagreement and reasoned debate into impulsive fury.  Voters say they want pragmatic compromise, but it’s not likely. 

Voters also want less heated charges and claims.  The Democrats should pledge division without divisiveness. And practice civility.

Disagreements among Democrats are normal.  Congressional elections are not a presidential vote; what wins in New York need not be identical with what works in Georgia.  One wing of the party need not dominate it everywhere, and each can make its case district-by-district while all promote the common agenda.

Moderates and progressives can pursue their agendas and avoid speaking ill of one another.  And all Democrats could now create a unified platform that states their party’s core goals. It’s not an either-or choice.