The GOP: bitter, but possibly liberated as elections bring a chance for change

 

The GOP: bitter, but possibly liberated

Elections bring a chance for change

 

Gordon L. Weil

In the wake of next week’s midterm elections, two images of the Republican Party may emerge, one a renewal of bitter conflict and the other more constructive.

One will be the MAGA reaction to the results.   Trump has created the model of what you do when you lose an election.   The losers charge it was tainted by illegal voting and dishonest vote counting.   That leads to claims that the election was invalid and the results should be nullified.  The challenges are settled in court.   Meanwhile, the winners cannot take office.

It’s not clear what would happen next, because, lacking evidence, it never gets that far.  Possibly, new elections.  Certainly, confidence in the democratic system would be undermined with the aim of more authoritarian rule.  Chaos is the goal, not a different outcome.  That’s what occurred in 2020.

The Democrats seem to have helped the Trump effort to question the results.  In Alaska, they found a person with an almost identical name as incumbent GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan to run with the intent of confusing voters.   That’s not illegal, but the revelation is not likely to help the Democratic candidate.

Even before the election, Trump’s Department of Justice asked the federal district court to block the result if the senator loses but would have won with the votes of the duplicate candidate.

Such an order would not be possible.  The court would have to assume, without knowing, who voted for the copy candidate and why.  

The DOJ probably knows that.  But the case boosts Trump’s claim that the Democrats undermine free elections.  Before the revelation of their promoting the copy, they had denied any connection with his candidacy.  It matters little that the Alaska situation does not involve either phantom voters or dishonest vote counting; it adds to the atmosphere of distrust.

A Blue Wave, with big Democratic margins, could discourage GOP claims, but challenges are highly likely.  The Democrats have set up an election protection task force.  Federal district courts should be ready to decide promptly unless the Republicans have evidence and not mere suspicion. 

The immediate aftermath of the elections could produce the political chaos that voting irregularity charges are meant to cause.   The lame duck Congress will try to pass many Trump policies while the GOP still controls the government and uncertainty swirls.   The election effect won’t be over until the new Congress is seated.  

If the Democrats gain control of one or both houses of Congress in January, they may investigate the Trump administration and will surely hold hearings to restage those conducted by the GOP.   They will try to block Trump’s judicial and executive nominations and will try to take control of the legislative agenda.  Republicans will resist.

Democrats and many political analysts assume that the GOP members will remain almost monolithic in their support for the president and his agenda, just as they were in the first two years of this Trump term.  Whatever the Democrats may try, they assume a united GOP opposition, still committed to the Trump agenda.

This assumption could be incorrect.  The election may not only reshape the Democrats, but the results may influence congressional Republicans.  Some Republicans may be liberated from their blind loyalty to Trump.

Even if Trump himself remains unyielding, Republican members of Congress will most likely have to deal with the realities highlighted by the elections.  Congressional Republicans may increasingly want to determine their own political fates, rather than falling in line behind a weakened and lame duck Trump.  

They would have good reasons to change course.

1. Trump is deeply unpopular.   Voters have begun to focus on what they see as his corruption and his willingness to attack anyone or any country disagreeing with him.  He is not only a lame duck, but his endorsement of primary opponents in 2028 may carry little weight, meaning GOP legislators have less to fear.

2. Bringing down prices and inflation tops the agenda.  As Bill Clinton said, “It’s not about woke.  It’s about broke.”  Trump’s social policy focus has fail to take attention away from the economic hardship of many Americans.

3. Trump’s immigration policy worked, but his deportation policy didn’t.  ICE should stop tracking down respectable, long-term residents, who contribute to the economy and focus on lawbreakers, as promised.   

4. The unpopular Iran war must be ended, and Ukraine should be supported.

5. Issues like Social Security cannot be ignored any longer and virtually require either an overwhelming majority of one party or really working across the aisle, thus strengthening Congress.

The Republicans will have a choice between fighting a rearguard battle supporting Trump trying to maintain some control by blocking the Democrats or reading the election results as a call to begin the renewal of the Grand Old Party.

Trump's last gasp?

Trump’s last gasp?

Helping MAGA survive

 

Gordon L. Weil

Donald Trump believes that he is exceptionally qualified to carry out a mandate to reshape America according to his own vision.

Above all, this mandate allows him to exercise personal and virtually absolute control, not only over the federal government, but over a myriad of aspects of national life.  Accomplishing his mandate, he could fulfill his claim to be the GOAT – the greatest of all time.

He runs the risk that original constitutional processes will frustrate his mandate.  The most basic are the elections that choose the president and Congress.  He devotes much attention to undermining elections with false fraud claims and attempts to suppress voting, but he cannot erase them.

As the congressional election year grinds on, threatening at least the GOP House majority, he is compelled to make an extreme effort to achieve his goals.  The elections might produce a Democratic majority that could thwart his hopes.  Or they could produce Republican victory, reaffirming his vision.

He must achieve his MAGA ambitions quickly.  If he faces rejection, and this is his last gasp in November, he must accomplish all he can now.   If the voters approve of his efforts, his two lame duck years will be transformed to give him the third term powers he has coveted.  Either way, between now and November 3, the public can expect his all-out effort to achieve his goals.

While observers focus on the Iran war’s impact on affordability and foreign relations, Trump may see winning the war and destroying as much as possible of Iran’s dangerous regime as being key to an eventual recognition of his greatness in dismantling a potential nuclear threat.  That may be why he presses on.

In misunderstanding NATO, he may be forcing the alliance to update itself.  Europe will be better able to defend itself, becoming more independent of the U.S.  Trump assigns himself credit for inducing the Europeans to play a bigger role; he lauds himself for military budget increases among America’s allies.  He scorns allies for not doing his bidding and now targets NATO.

Trump obviously sees the armed forces as a major tool in exploiting American power to bring change to the world and the use of the threat of war as a believable and acceptable policy.  His easy but limited success in Venezuela has obviously been intoxicating and encourages him to try to duplicate it.   Cuba is a tempting target, and he will press on in seeking others.

In the process, he and Pete Hegseth, his amazing and alarming choice to lead the armed forces, reshapes the military.  Without regard to morale and readiness, they are stripping high command of women and African Americans. Hegseth believes such people are promoted simply because of their sex or race, and will continue to pursue military ethnic cleansing until yearend.

Trump sees federal judges as political, not judicial, officials.  He reflexively attributes his court defeats to liberal judges.  If Congress flips in November, he will not be able to put his backers on the bench.  Thus, it reasonable to expect a rush to get his nominees confirmed before the elections. 

Executive orders, questionable legislating by the executive, will continue to cascade. Trump can be expected to kill as much regulation that remains as possible, especially any surviving elements of environmental or financial protection.  As needed, he will tighten his control of supposedly independent boards.

While U.S. dependence on certain imports could moderate his tariff policy somewhat, he seems determined to press ahead with it.  He uses tariffs in the same way as he deploys military forces, as a demonstration of the America power at his disposal.  In both cases, his preoccupation with power obscures the ability to appreciate unintended consequences.

Trump’s unyielding pursuit of his agenda is bringing two reactions that increasingly call his insistence into question.

Europe, Canada, Australia and others are becoming increasingly critical and more independent of the U.S., which was accustomed to working with allies, even if it had the greatest force.   When Trump says the U.S. can go it alone, he pushes other countries into new relationships and reducing ties with it.  American power decreases, opening opportunities for China. 

The other factor is the gradual erosion of his support among some congressional Republicans.   Trump has taken over many congressional powers with GOP majority backing.   Despite being responsible for their own loss of control, some members slip away from him and others leave Congress.  Democrats expect usual mid-term election gains and maybe more.

Congressional races have become national elections.  Because of Trump’s sweeping and bold actions and the relatively minor influence of Congress, the election unavoidably becomes a decision about him. 

Trump finds himself in a political spotlight of his own creation.  Win or lose, perhaps that’s what matters the most to him.