Trump’s last gasp?
Helping MAGA survive
Gordon L. Weil
Donald Trump believes that he is exceptionally qualified to
carry out a mandate to reshape America according to his own vision.
Above all, this mandate allows him to exercise personal and
virtually absolute control, not only over the federal government, but over a
myriad of aspects of national life. Accomplishing
his mandate, he could fulfill his claim to be the GOAT – the greatest of all
time.
He runs the risk that original constitutional processes will
frustrate his mandate. The most basic are
the elections that choose the president and Congress. He devotes much attention to undermining elections
with false fraud claims and attempts to suppress voting, but he cannot erase
them.
As the congressional election year grinds on, threatening at
least the GOP House majority, he is compelled to make an extreme effort to
achieve his goals. The elections might
produce a Democratic majority that could thwart his hopes. Or they could produce Republican victory, reaffirming
his vision.
He must achieve his MAGA ambitions quickly. If he faces rejection, and this is his last
gasp in November, he must accomplish all he can now. If the voters approve of his efforts, his two
lame duck years will be transformed to give him the third term powers he has
coveted. Either way, between now and
November 3, the public can expect his all-out effort to achieve his goals.
While observers focus on the Iran war’s impact on affordability
and foreign relations, Trump may see winning the war and destroying as much as possible
of Iran’s dangerous regime as being key to an eventual recognition of his
greatness in dismantling a potential nuclear threat. That may be why he presses on.
In misunderstanding NATO, he may be forcing the alliance to
update itself. Europe will be better
able to defend itself, becoming more independent of the U.S. Trump assigns himself credit for inducing the
Europeans to play a bigger role; he lauds himself for military budget increases
among America’s allies. He scorns allies
for not doing his bidding and now targets NATO.
Trump obviously sees the armed forces as a major tool in exploiting
American power to bring change to the world and the use of the threat of war as
a believable and acceptable policy. His
easy but limited success in Venezuela has obviously been intoxicating and encourages
him to try to duplicate it. Cuba is a
tempting target, and he will press on in seeking others.
In the process, he and Pete Hegseth, his amazing and
alarming choice to lead the armed forces, reshapes the military. Without regard to morale and readiness, they
are stripping high command of women and African Americans. Hegseth believes
such people are promoted simply because of their sex or race, and will continue
to pursue military ethnic cleansing until yearend.
Trump sees federal judges as political, not judicial,
officials. He reflexively attributes his
court defeats to liberal judges. If
Congress flips in November, he will not be able to put his backers on the
bench. Thus, it reasonable to expect a
rush to get his nominees confirmed before the elections.
Executive orders, questionable legislating by the executive,
will continue to cascade. Trump can be expected to kill as much regulation that
remains as possible, especially any surviving elements of environmental or
financial protection. As needed, he will
tighten his control of supposedly independent boards.
While U.S. dependence on certain imports could moderate his
tariff policy somewhat, he seems determined to press ahead with it. He uses tariffs in the same way as he deploys
military forces, as a demonstration of the America power at his disposal. In both cases, his preoccupation with power
obscures the ability to appreciate unintended consequences.
Trump’s unyielding pursuit of his agenda is bringing two
reactions that increasingly call his insistence into question.
Europe, Canada, Australia and others are becoming increasingly
critical and more independent of the U.S., which was accustomed to working with
allies, even if it had the greatest force.
When Trump says the U.S. can go it alone, he pushes other countries into
new relationships and reducing ties with it.
American power decreases, opening opportunities for China.
The other factor is the gradual erosion of his support among
some congressional Republicans. Trump
has taken over many congressional powers with GOP majority backing. Despite being responsible for their own loss
of control, some members slip away from him and others leave Congress. Democrats expect usual mid-term election gains
and maybe more.
Congressional races have become national elections. Because of Trump’s sweeping and bold actions
and the relatively minor influence of Congress, the election unavoidably becomes
a decision about him.
Trump finds himself in a political spotlight of his own creation. Win or lose, perhaps that’s what matters the most to him.
