If Democrats win, they can’t turn clock back

If Democrats win, they can’t turn clock back

US, world have changed

 Gordon L. Weil

Many Trump opponents believe that when the Democrats regain power, partly through this year’s congressional elections and in the 2028 presidential race, they will be able to reset national politics back to life before MAGA.

It may be a nice dream, but it’s only that.  It won’t happen, because it can’t happen.

The immediate problem is money.  The federal government now operates with a massive national deficit, mainly because it keeps spending more while cutting taxes.  Without a huge reduction in military spending and an increase in taxes, the money simply isn’t there to restore the pre-Trump government.

The Democrats have worked hard to shed an image of being weak on defense, which is as much about job creation as building a better war power.  They see risk in trimming the defense budget, but might have to make cuts to revive Social Security and Medicare.   Otherwise, those social welfare programs will weaken.  Tough choice.

Progressives favor taxing the wealthy to recover revenues lost from Trump tax breaks.  The currently highest tax rate is 37%.  In 1963, it was 91% and as late as 1981, it was 70%.   Progressive proposals are far more modest, and they would pass the revenue on to middle-class taxpayers, not the poor.  Cutting deficits, now at their highest annual growth rate, is unlikely.

But there’s more that cannot be reversed.  Under Trump, the U.S. has not only greatly reduced efforts to halt global climate change, but it actively tries to unravel what has already been done.  Glaciers melt into the sea, and no Democratic policy can halt global warming and its impacts on the climate and the sea.  Restoration must give way to real remedies, not band aids.

That would require stepped up regulation, a Trump destruction project.  The Supreme Court has not allowed the EPA much latitude in rulemaking, meaning that change will have to come from Congress.  If anything can pass, it’s likely to be more limited than under previous administrations of either party.

The U.S. has been the world’s leader in science.  Look at the Nobel Prizes in the sciences, and there’s clear American leadership.  Many of the top scientists are at leading American research universities.   Trump has declared war on many of them, using doubtful charges about mainly undergraduate protests, to withdraw funding for advanced research.

American scientists are tempted to accept appointments at foreign universities.  Younger scientists may also prefer the prospect of foreign employment over the risks of working for the universities dependent on the federal government.  When the top talent is gone, it will be difficult to attract it back to the uncertainty or companies at home.

Relations with allies have been broken.  They have learned that American policy can be erratic and that they can no longer rely on the certainty of joint action on common challenges.  Trump rightly challenged their overdependence on the U.S., but seemingly misunderstood the nature of an alliance of sovereign countries, which may have differing analyses of world affairs.

The result of his pressure has been increased effort by all NATO allies.  But with their greater strength has come their sense of independence from reflexive support for the U.S.  Both Trump’s plan to take Greenland from Denmark, a loyal ally, and his war on Iran, for which he did not consult them but expected their support, wounded the relationship.

While some advocate a return to Atlantic partnership, the absence of trust and predictability would lead to a more careful and arms-length network.  Realistically, the Russian threat, revealed in Ukraine to be weaker than believed, may eventually require less of an increasingly questionable U.S. guarantee.

Finally, there is the nature of American democracy itself.  The growth of presidential power at the expense of Congress has come at the hands of presidents of both parties this past quarter century.  The Democrats can hardly be expected to abandon many of the powers that Trump has magnified with the Supreme Court’s approval.

To modify the Constitution by agreeing to answers to the questions that have been raised about its meaning over the past 250 years would open it to a transformation reflecting the views of conservatives or liberals rather than a consensus.   Because this is understood, both sides come to the brink but back away.

Unless members of Congress show greater faith in the leading constitutional role of their branch than in loyalty to their party, little would change under a Democratic presidency.  Compromise has come to mean “my way or the highway,” yet it remains essential for the American system to work.  

The country and the world undergo irreversible change.  It is too late to turn back, especially as increased executive power has become more acceptable, and charisma may matter more than character.  The times require creativity and leadership, but both are lacking.