Trump’s last chance; redistricting chaos; war powers
Gordon L. Weil
Redistricting out of control
In the latest round in the race to redistrict congressional
districts, the Virginia Supreme Court undercut Democratic hopes by overruling
the results of a statewide referendum on redistricting. A court has blocked a vote of the people.
Unusual, but a sign of the unlimited power of the judiciary.
Another recent development is the prompt action to eliminate
Democratic districts, notably those represented by African Americans, in the
wake of last week’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling that minorities would have to show
clear intent to discriminate to block such moves. It’s easy to disguise such bias in Republican
states that are eliminating Democratic districts.
Chief Justice John Roberts protests that people should not
see the Court as political. Given that swift
redistricting took place days after the last time the Court slashed the Voting
Rights Act, the Chief asks too much.
Maybe he should worry that people will believe the Court is hopelessly
out of touch or, worse, racist.
Some states used to elect members of Congress on a single
statewide ballot, but Congress used its constitutional power to require the use
of districts. We are now getting the
equivalent of single, statewide party rule when partisan gerrymandering takes
place, which the Court approves.
Because Congress can require the use of the districts, it
should also require they meet standards that prevent weirdly shaped districts
created to serve partisan purposes. For
example, it could require counties to be kept intact as much as possible and
that each district must be compact.
Trump’s last chance?
President Trump realizes that there’s a good chance the
Republicans will lose control of the House and possibly of the Senate. The Democrats could block many of his
initiatives. He would have to deal with
them, a prospect he probably intensely dislikes.
As a result, he wants to accomplish as much of his agenda as
possible this year, before a new Congress takes office. His wish list could well include these items:
1. End hostilities with Iran, open the Strait of Hormuz and
get oil and gas prices down fast.
2. Get the next One Big Beautiful Budget passed with a huge
increase in military spending.
3. Quit NATO in law as well as fact.
4. See Putin end Russia’s war with Ukraine, allowing Trump to
claim the Nobel Peace Prize.
5. Force changes in the Cuban and Brazilian governments, thus
confirming his Donroe Doctrine.
6. Trash the USMCA trade agreement with Canada and Mexico.
7. See a court convict just one of his political opponents.
Leaders double down
Trump faces falling poll ratings. Putin worries about being toppled. Netanyahu
must make it through upcoming elections.
All run risks caused by their military excesses. The question is whether they will find ways
to manage their problems by admitting their errors of judgment.
So far, they share a common characteristic. When things start to go bad, you double
down. That does not reverse the earlier
mistake; it makes matters worse.
Trump’s obstinacy on Iran has brought economic harm in the
U.S. and across the world. His
inconsistent and idiosyncratic policies have cost the U.S. its world
leadership. His theme is America First,
but he applies it in ways that don’t serve the long-term national
interest. He may not care for anything
more than ego gratification (passport image, Kennedy Center).
Putin’s war has lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s
participation in World War II. Russians
have noticed and even some of his loyal supporters have openly questioned his
Ukraine invasion. He reportedly works out of a bunker. But he won’t admit defeat.
Netanyahu may be popular in Israel, but not much
elsewhere. He is losing the backing of
many Democrats, an unfortunate development when Israel has long relied on
strong bipartisan American support. When
the dust settles, he may have escaped his personal legal trouble, which seems
to matter a lot, but not the long-term cost to Israel, which seems not to
matter enough.
The War Powers Act
The War Powers Act requires the president to notify congressional
leaders within 48 hours of launching military operations. Congress must authorize the operations within
60 days (30 additional are possible) or they must be halted.
Though he doubted the WPA’s constitutionality, President
Trump provided timely notice after the Iran War began. A tenuous ceasefire stopped most offensive
action within 60 days, though large U.S. forces remain ready to act. He claimed that no congressional action was
required, because of the ceasefire.
The WPA says nothing about armed conflict continuing; it
does not mention suspension of the 60 days once the period begins. It’s the starting
date that matters, making Trump’s interpretation dubious. But, so far, the WPA has seemed to work.
